In April 2023, Angola’s crude oil production was reported at 1.06 million barrels per day, while Algeria and Nigeria produced 999,000 barrels per day during the same period. Nigeria’s output rate for 2023 hit an all-time low. The report attributes Nigeria’s struggling economy in 1H23 to slow corporate and consumer expenditure, high input cost inflation, and lower employment levels compared to other African nations. However, leading indicators point to a potential economic recovery in the coming months, although the Nigerian government has yet to specify a new date after postponing the June deadline for ending gasoline subsidies.
The OPEC report indicates that in April 2023, total OPEC-13 crude oil output decreased by 191,000 barrels per day to an average of 28.60 million barrels per day. Iraq and Nigeria’s production declined, while Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Iran’s output increased. OPEC forecasts that escalating international tensions will continue to impact global oil consumption in 2023. The organization’s monthly oil market report (MOMR), published on May 11, estimates that global oil consumption will exceed 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023.
Despite the challenges, the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained the policy rate at 18% after two rate hikes of 50 basis points in March and 100 points in January. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose sharply in April to 53.8 from 42.3 in March, indicating a potential short-term rebound.